How to Outsmart Wall Street's Goliaths
How to Outsmart Wall Street's Goliaths
Lessons From a Gold Rush Tale
Dear Investor,
In 1849, there was a young man from Boston who got caught up in the excitement of the California gold rush.
Like so many young men of the day who were traveling West to get rich from gold, he decided that he too would seek a fortune for himself in the California rivers, which were said to be overflowing with gigantic piles of dazzling gold nuggets.
So the young man sold all his possessions and set off for California, determined to become the best gold prospector in the land.
After a few weeks of hard travel, the young man arrived at the Sacramento River, rumored to hold the richest supply of gold. But when the young man arrived at the prospecting camp, it was already teeming with hundreds of other men and women just like himself, each determined to become rich and find more gold than the next.
Nevertheless, the young man was not deterred, and he set up his tent. He knew he was smarter than everyone else in the camp, and he was confident that he could outwork them all. He even noticed – much to his amusement – that there was a very old prospector who lived in the camp… although his tent was somewhat set apart from the others.
“Who is that old man?” he asked one of the other gold miners in the camp. “And what in the world does he think he’s doing here?”
“Just some old prospector who lives around here,” the miner replied. “But he mostly keeps to himself.”
The young man scoffed. “Look at him. He doesn’t belong here. He’s more likely to give himself a heart attack than to find gold in this river.”
“Now, now, don’t be so confident,” said the miner. “Word around here is that that old man is the best gold prospector on the West Coast.”
“We’ll see about that,” replied the young man, and he set off for the old prospector’s tent.
“Old man!” he shouted as he stuck his head into the tent. “I hear you’re the best gold prospector on the West Coast. Is this true?”
The old prospector just shrugged his shoulders.
“Well… enjoy it while you can,” said the young man. “Because there’s a new kid in town.”
The young man shook his head as he walked back to his tent. “That old prospector won’t be able to keep up with me,” he thought. “I’m smarter, stronger, faster, and more determined than he is. He doesn’t stand a chance.” And with that, the young man crawled onto his cot and blew out his lantern, excited and hopeful for the day ahead.
When the young man awoke at dawn the next morning, however, the prospecting camp was already bustling with activity. So he wolfed down his breakfast and set off down the riverbank, gold pan in hand, in search of his fortune.
The young man worked very hard the entire day, standing waist-deep in water and breaking his back under the hot California sun. By the time that dusk began to settle, he had about a handful of small gold pebbles. The young man looked at the other young men and women around him and was very pleased with his work. His small pile of gold was at least bigger than the others, and some of his competitors hadn’t even found any gold. A smile crept over his face as he walked back to the camp.
That smile soon vanished, however, because just as he was reaching his tent the young man noticed the old prospector returning from his own day’s work. And the old prospector didn’t just find a small handful of gold pebbles. His suitcase was stuffed with giant gold nuggets, many as large as a grown man’s fist!
The young man was dumbfounded. “Surely the old man just had a lucky day,” he thought to himself. “But to make sure he doesn’t find more gold than me again, tomorrow I’ll wake up an hour early and double my efforts.”
So the next day the young man woke up an hour early and worked twice as hard. But at the end of the day, all he had was a little more than a handful of gold pebbles to show for it and the old prospector, once again, had an entire satchel filled with giant gold nuggets.
The young man was beginning to get irritated. “You know, maybe I’m just not searching in the right area,” he thought. So he hired a geologist and together they studied the area and determined that the most fruitful place to pan for gold was actually in the opposite direction of where the young man had gone the previous two days.
The next day came and the young man slaved away under the hot sun in the area where the geologist had sent him. And at the end of the day, he managed to find two handfuls of small gold pebbles. But the old prospector returned to the camp with an entire satchel filled with giant gold nuggets.
The young man howled with despair.
This pattern continued to repeat itself over the next several months. Each day the young man would set off and work harder than he had the day before. He worked longer. He hired geologists, surveyors, and engineers and consulted with experts. He studied advanced mining techniques. And he spent all his savings, down to the last penny, on new machines and equipment.
But he never came away with more than a few handfuls of gold pebbles.
Meanwhile, the old prospector – day in and day out – returned to the camp with a full satchel of gold nuggets.
After several months, the young man was exasperated. He had spent all he had on experts and consultants and new fancy machines, and yet he had made virtually no progress. And although he continued to find a few gold pebbles every day, it wasn’t nearly enough to support himself.
Discouraged, broke, and exhausted, the young man concluded that he would return home to Boston.
Before he left, however, he decided he should talk to the old prospector.
The young man stuck his head into the old prospector’s tent once again. “Ahem, um, sir?” he said. “I wanted to apologize for what I said to you several months ago. You’re a great prospector, much better than I ever could be. I guess I’m just not cut out for this line of work.”
The old prospector didn’t say a word.
So the young man started to leave… but then hesitated.
“If- if you don’t mind…” he said “How did you find so much gold? I worked harder than you, I worked longer than you, I hired experts and consultants, I bought fancy machines, and I studied all the latest techniques! Was there a hidden riverbed that my surveyors and I didn’t find? Did you invent a new machine? Or do you know a secret method for finding gold that I was never able to discover? Please, sir, tell me your secret!”
The old man smiled and shook his head. “Son, why don’t you show me the last place you looked for gold.” So the young man led the old prospector to a bend in the river, a few hundred yards away from the camp, where he had been working the previous day.
Taking out his map and about twelve complicated scientific instruments, the young man began wading around in the water, periodically stopping to either dig around in the mud or recalibrate his instruments.
After a while, the young man was still empty-handed. “See! No gold here!” he proclaimed.
Smiling, the old prospector observed the entire scene for a few moments, then walked a couple of steps up the riverbank to a pile of rocks. He kicked the pile of rocks, bent down to push some dirt aside, and picked up a giant gold nugget larger than his head!
The young man’s jaw dropped. “How’d you find that?!” he asked.
The old prospector chuckled.
“You see, while you and all the other miners in the camp were trying to find the perfect place to dig for gold by talking to experts and consultants, buying fancy new machines, and running complicated calculations, all I had to do every day was simply walk along the riverbank and find the piles of rocks that you and everyone else had chosen to overlook.”
And with that, the old prospector turned to walk back to the camp, with a giant gold nugget in his hand.
How you can be more like the old prospector
You may think that professional investors with their research teams are superior to retail investors, but the opposite is true.
Let me illustrate this with a few examples.
As short-sighted as many CEOs are, so are many fund managers. With Wall Street eager for the next quarterly report, institutional investors are under pressure to constantly deliver results (just like the young man looking for gold every day).
And anyone who has been investing for a while knows that a quarter is not meaningful.
You, on the other hand, have no pressure at all.
You don’t have to report to anyone. You are not under pressure to do anything.
You can sit calmly on the sidelines and wait until the opportunity comes to you.
The stock market is a no-called-strike game.
You don’t have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch.
- Warren Buffett -
While professional investors chase the latest stock ideas which leads to everyone chasing the same hot stocks, you can go for a walk to discover opportunities before everyone else:
While the professionals hire expensive teams and make complicated forecasts that usually don't come true anyway, you use two proven valuation metrics like the Piotroski F-Score and the Altman-Z score that tell you the facts you need to know:
While other investors focus on headlines and take them at face value, you uncover hidden opportunities:
And so on…
Be more like the old prospector who simplifies his work and gets the best results and less like the young guy who overcomplicates everything.
You have the upper hand.
Until the next issue. 👋
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Disclaimer: This analysis is not advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from my research. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.