The Wrinkle in The Economy: What Declining Botox Sales Reveal

AbbVie’s numbers suggest consumers are tightening their belts

Dear investor,

I hope this message finds you well.

I’ve been wondering lately what kind of shape the economy is really in. Not based on headlines or social media noise - but the real story.

So I did what I always do in times like this: I skipped the opinions and went straight to the source - earnings call transcripts. That’s where the unfiltered truth usually shows up.

And in one of those calls, something interesting jumped out at me. One company, and one product in particular, caught my attention: AbbVie and their surprising drop in Botox sales.

In AbbVie's latest earnings call, management pointed to falling Botox sales and blamed one key factor: tightening consumer wallets. Luxury self-care is often the first thing to go when people feel financially uncertain - and that makes Botox an unusual economic indicator.

Historically, shifts in discretionary spending have often preceded broader slowdowns. When consumers start pulling back on luxury goods and services like Botox, it’s usually a sign that a more cautious, defensive mindset is taking hold.

AbbVie’s numbers paint a clear picture. As CEO Jeffrey Stewart explained on the company’s recent earnings call:

"Botox Cosmetic global revenues were $556 million, down 10.7% on an operational basis, and Juvederm sales were $231 million, down 20% on an operational basis. As we have seen over the last several quarters, economic headwinds have continued to impact market conditions. Based on the trends we are seeing, including a decline in recent consumer sentiment, we are moderating our assumptions for category growth globally and adjusting our full year sales guidance for aesthetics accordingly."

It’s not just about fewer cosmetic treatments. It's about the psychology underneath: when confidence weakens, consumers quietly start prioritizing essentials over indulgences. This small shift - invisible at first - often snowballs across the broader economy.

But while falling Botox sales might hint at economic turbulence ahead, investors have little reason to panic - as long as they stick to what has always worked.

When storm clouds gather, common-sense investing shines brightest.

Instead of trying to predict every twist and turn of the economy, smart investors refocus on what truly matters:

• Strong free cash flow that supports dividends, buybacks and reinvestments into the business.

• Healthy profit margins that protect earnings power during slowdowns.

• Low capital expenditures that avoid heavy debt and vulnerability through inflation.

• Durable competitive advantages (economic moats) that fend off rivals and safeguard profits.

Businesses that check these boxes aren’t just built to survive tough times - they often emerge even stronger.

The economy will always have cycles. Consumer sentiment will rise and fall.

But ownership of resilient, high-quality companies allows investors to stay steady - and even find opportunity when others lose focus.

Economic winds may shift. But if you stick to businesses built to weather the storm, you’ll find there’s little to fear.

Until the next issue. 🥂

---

Premium Content 📈

I buy individual stocks for my own portfolio and I analyze individual stocks for my clients.

Elite companies with elite management and unique products are the ones that perform the best - all you have to do is give them some time.

Every few weeks, I introduce a handpicked stock that stands out for its strong fundamentals, competitive moat, and growth potential.

Backed by in-depth analysis, each recommendation is carefully chosen to help you build wealth sustainably over time.

Don’t just follow the market - get ahead of it with strategies tailored for serious, patient investors who seek consistent, long-term success.

Start building a portfolio of elite businesses step by step - while Wall Street lemmings follow the crowd.

If this resonates with you, then get the last 4 reports today and gain the edge you need during uncertain times.

👉 Start investing in elite businesses 👈

Remember: The next crisis is inevitable. But panic is optional. Arm yourself with businesses designed to endure - then sit back, sip your coffee, and let time prove you right.

---

If you enjoy The Onveston Letter, let me and the algorithm know by clicking the “Like” button ❤️.

And if you aren’t a subscriber yet, then sign up below to not miss out on future articles.

For new readers: Check out all my previous posts here

Disclaimer: This analysis is not advice to buy or sell this or any stock; it is just pointing out an objective observation of unique patterns that developed from my research. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities or to give individual investment advice.